Guide FOUND AND LOST (RED HERRING Book 1)

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Red Herrings

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Red Herring (Logical Fallacy)

Reviewed March 17, via mobile Lovely but different. Thank hazza Linda D. Date of visit: February It also shows that we may get the estimate wrong, if we do not take care. So, in summary, my feeling is that some sort of Rothamsted and causal calculus synthesis would be valuable. It may be that your work with Mansournia, for example, may help produce it.. Taking a step back, it seems that some of the above arguments come from mixing a perspective of engineering with a perspective of science.

Differences Between Red Herrings and Other Fallacies

Per the Popperian view, science grows by framing hypotheses and subjecting them to increasing severity. Progress is achieved by the fact that each successive hypothesis has to pass the same test as its predecessor, and at least one of those that its predecessor has failed. This view is in contrast with the older view wherein science was about framing laws derived by induction from a multitude of particular and observational facts.

To Popper, generalizations comes first and the observations used to test the generalizations come next. The perspective here is different from what engineering aims at.

Red Herrings: What’s Really Going On? • Jane Cleland

This is where the causality argument comes in and I believe is synergistic to statistical thinking. There is of course the need to discuss estimation and identifiability, but the limitations in this do not diminish the value of the causality argument at least, to me. Progress in science, and the application of science for directly useful purposes, do not have to be mutually exclusive. We should however better clarify what is discussed.

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Severe testing does not seem to be a great concern in engineering. As a minimal step, we should make sure that terms carry the same meaning in the discussion. My definition of significance is too hasty. I should have done this in terms of P and 1-P. Basically two one sided tests are carried out.

I hope that I have not confused readers too much. Dang you Pearl and Senn for making me read and think so much today. The question of interest is whether the two data sets can be adequately approximated by the same function f. The reader can reflect at this point as to whether this is, in a sense, really the question of interest. It makes no mention of causality.

As the difference is zero, in the original paradox both expressions are zero, the conclusion is that there is no diet effect. In other words, the question is whether the distinct metabolism of boys has a different effect on their growth pattern than that of girls. He replaces the total effect by the direct effect defined as.


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Figure 1 of [1] shows that this is non-zero which implies that the functions are different. It makes no sense if the supports supp x in girls and supp x in boys are disjoint. To make sense the integral must be restricted to the intersection of the supports. The result is still non-zero implying that the functions are not equal.

In contrast the total effect TE makes sense even if the two supports are disjoint. Suppose the heaviest girl has a weight of 65kg and the lightest man of 75kg. Should this give reason to pause? Not at all, the functions are linear so one extrapolates happily in both directions; see Figure 1 of [1]. What happens if it is not linear? This function has the property that there is a gain in weight if x Moreover the function looks linear. Suppose all the girls have initial weights of at most 75 and all the boys an initial weight of at least The supports are disjoint.

Due to an administrative mixup both get the same diet 4 so there is no diet effect. But both statisticians now conclude that there is an effect: girls gain weight, boys lose weight. If they simply plug everything into their software they may not even notice. The assumptions should be made explicit so that they are on the table. So what are the assumptions? That the linear model fits, that I can extrapolate way beyond the support of the data sets. These and others seem not to be on the table. Are they irrelevant?. Does this matter or can we still used the Nelder method even if the data are generated as in 4?

Her is an aside on linear regression. The basic idea is very simple: it compares the covariates with i. Gaussian covariates.

The amount of red herrings in season 3

The P-value of a covariate is the probability that the random Gaussian covariate is better, that is gives a smaller sum of squared residuals. It is model free in that the P-values are exact whatever the data. Moreover they agree with those obtained under the standard linear regression model with i. This may be of interest to Mayo. Its main advantage is in the area of covariate choice. It solves the problem of post selection inference PoSI and it can be applied to the case where the number of covariates vastly exceeds the sample size. One example of gene expression data has a sample size of together with covariates.

For such data it outperforms lasso and knockoff in every respect.